SARS – The USA Realist

Coronavirus Infections Spike in Recent Days

There is growing concern that the new form of coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is more dangerous than previously believed. Initial reporting indicated that there was little concern of a pandemic. Health officials in China, Japan, Korea, and the USA all indicated the potential for wide-spread infection to low, however, new reporting is showing more cause for alarm. The Washington Post reported a massive quarantine in China meant to help contain the dangerous virus.

The number of reported cases keep growing every day. So far, the virus has spread from Wuhan City, Hubei province, to Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, South Korea, France, Australia, Japan, Nepal, the United States, and Taiwan. The first accounts of the coronavirus were not very alarming, leading many to believe that containment would not be much of an issue. However in recent days, that sentiment has changed. When news of the new virus broke, the number of infected was very low. Now, there are almost 2000 confirmed cases in China and the death toll has jumped to 56.

A recent article from The New York Times highlighted the concern for this virus to spread more ferociously than the SARS outbreak in the early 2000’s.

The director of China’s National Health and Health Commission, said on Sunday that the new coronavirus’s incubation period was about 10 to 14 days. And that period in which a virus is contagious is different from the SARS outbreak, said the director, Ma Xiaowei.
The rate of the current epidemic is accelerating, he said, and is “likely to continue for some time.”

The pressure is on to contain the outbreak with China building a new field hospital in Wuhan designed to treat patients suspected of contracting 2019-nCoV. Also, Chinese President Xi Jinping was warning residents to be prepared for the virus spreading rapidly. This high-level announcement stoked the fear in the already jittery nation. It was reported in an article from The Washing Post that there is now an effort to quarantine in China.

“More than 50 million people were ordered on lockdown in central China with a travel ban covering 16 cities in the central Hubei Province, where the virus was first encountered.”

The Washington Post has a useful tool to track and map the spread of the virus. It can be found here.

Here is the latest map from that site:

Even with the alarming news of the rapidly growing number of cases. The World Health Organization has yet to declare a global emergency. Despite the lack of an officially declared emergency, there is great cooperation in the international community to contain the coronavirus.

There are still contrasting views on the dangers of a pandemic. In China, where the death rate of those infected is about 4% and ‘severe’ infections are about 25%, officials are concerned. Another report on the outbreak from Yahoo News highlights the Chinese response.

After more countries reported cases, Xi said at a Communist Party leadership meeting on the disease that China was “faced with the grave situation of an accelerating spread of the new coronavirus” but that the country will “definitely be able to win the battle,” according to state media.

In the United States, where only 3 cases have been reported, most recently in Orange County, California, there seems to be much less worry. Efforts at some airports have been stepped up to monitor passengers coming from affected areas. Reporting from the local newspaper, The Orange County Register, highlights the response from the Orange County Health Care Agency and the CDC.

The Orange County agency said it, in consultation with the CDC and the state Department of Public Health, is following up with all people who have had close contact with the patient.
It said:
–The HCA will monitor any close contacts and assure that proper evaluation and care is provided if they become ill.
–The CDC’s guidance indicates that people who have casual contact with a case (such as in the same grocery store or movie theater) are at minimal risk of developing infection.
–There is no evidence that person-to-person transmission has occurred in Orange County.
“The current risk of local transmission remains low,” the agency said in a statement.Information about the coronavirus is on the OC agency’s website here.

Continued containment efforts will remain difficult as the incubation period for 2019-nCoV is about 2 weeks, where the virus can be spread while those infected remain asymptomatic. Efforts for containment in China are commendable. We will continue to follow this story and watch for updated information relating to infection rates and follow-up meetings from the WHO.

Another Virus Update…More Infections Reported

Health, World News

Does anyone remember SARS? It was a big deal way back in aught two (2002, that is). SARS infections claimed almost 800 lives. 2019-nCoV and SARS are both forms of coronavirus that can affect the respiratory system and lead to pneumonia. This is more of a concern in those with compromised immune systems, young children, and the elderly. So far, reporting on the new virus was surrounded with caution, yet it remained optimistic. In the previous articles about the new virus posted on USArealist.com, it was noted that health officials from China, Japan, the USA, and the WHO all expressed the same sentiment that transmission of the disease was unlikely to be spread from human contact.

This initial assessment was based upon the belief that the virus originated in China and was specifically related to contact with animals at a local market in Wuhan City. As stated in the original article on USArealist.com, one of the biggest threats to containment is the globalized society in which we live.

Infections are spreading and so far about 300 people have tested positive for 2019-nCoV that resulted in 6 reported deaths in China. Health officials globally are appearing to be proactive in their response to the updated data that shows a spike in infections being reported across the globe. Numerous airports are stepping up efforts to contain the spread of the virus through enhanced health screening. So Far, cases have been identified in China, Japan, Thailand, and South Korea.

A recent article from the Associated Press indicated the risk associated with treating the virus as health worker infections are growing.

“ “Fifteen medical workers have also tested positive for the virus, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission said.

Two cases in Guangdong were people who had not visited Wuhan but fell ill after family members returned from there. Zhong cited those as evidence the disease had spread between humans.”

Zhong Nanshan is a health expert from China.

Although the new virus can cause alarm, there should be an overwhelming sense of relief that governments are sharing data and stepping up screening to try and contain the outbreak. The response to 2019-nCoV is quicker and more coordinated than the response to SARS. Also, although there have been some fatalities, the symptoms of infection seem to be milder than other coronaviruses lessening the potential for a mass-casualty event.

2019-nCoV Virus Update

Health, World News

Update….Another Coronavirus Infection Detected Outside of China

Another person has been affected by the new coronavirus, this time in Japan. It was reported in The Japan Times that the infected man in his 30s was a Chinese national who recently returned from a trip to Wuhan City. Health officials do not seem alarmed as he was treated and released from the hospital with mild symptoms.

At the airports in Tokyo, passengers have to pass through a screening that uses thermal cameras to detect passengers who have fevers. The man who was infected with 2019-nCoV (2019 novel coronavirus) passed this screening and was hospitalized 4 days later on January 10^th. He spent 5 days in the hospital and was released.

Although the idea of a new virus spreading around seems alarming, at this stage there seems to be minimal risk of a widespread event. Even though coronaviruses are typically spread through human-to-human contact, the rate at which this happens with 2019-nCoV appears to be minimal.

As reported in the recent article in The Japan Times:

“Satoshi Kutsuna, an expert at the Disease Control and Prevention Center under the National Center for Global Health and Medicine, said in a web article that people don’t need to be excessively worried about the virus.

Although the infection case between the couple suggests the possibility of human-to-human transmission, examinations on nearly 1,000 people who came in contact with the infected patients have shown they were not infected.

This indicates that “it’s unlikely that it will spread widely around the globe,” Kutsuna wrote.”

There seems to be no need for alarm…for now.

New Virus Has Health Officials on Alert

Health, World News

Mystery Virus

The idea of a new virus is causing alarm at some international airports. The recent discovery of an unknown form of coronavirus has health officials across the globe on high alert. The virus, known as “2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV as listed on the GenBank sequence database), was detected in Wuhan city, Central-Eastern China. There have been 41 confirmed cases among Chinese nationals, one of which was detected at Suvarnabhumi airport in Bangkok, Thailand. The virus is not a mystery any longer as Chinese scientists have sequenced and shared the genome data of 2019-nCoV.

According to a recent article in the Bangkok Post, health officials are working on containment by stepping up monitoring of travelers from Wuhan City.

“The Public Health Ministry has increased its monitoring at four airports that have daily flights from Wuhan – Suvarnabhumi, Don Mueng, Chiang Mai and Phuket – and any airports that receive charter flights from the city.”

Sophon Iamsirithaworn, the Director of the Thai Disease Control Department, indicated that there are approximately 1,200 arrivals from Wuhan, with a slight increase during the Luna New Year holiday.

With any disease outbreak, one of the biggest concerns is undiagnosed infections that could lead to a pandemic. This is especially true with previously unknown viruses. Althought 2019-nCoV is classified as a coronavirus, typically spread through human-to-human contact, a CDC report referencing Chinese officials indicated that the transmission of this virus may have been related to exposure to an animal and seafood market.

“Chinese health authorities report that to date in this outbreak, most infections with 2019-nCoV have had some exposure to one large seafood and animal market. They report no confirmed person-to-person spread of this virus. Authorities also report that several hundred contacts, including health care workers caring for outbreak patients, are being monitored and no additional illnesses have been detected.”

adding…

“There is much more to learn about the transmissibility, severity, and other features associated with 2019-nCoV, and investigations are ongoing. Based on current information, however, the risk from 2019-nCoV to the American public is deemed to be low at this time. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions.”

While the reported infections of this new virus are relatively low, and located in Mainland China, there is a significant risk of the virus spreading globally. Chinese tourism has been expanding over the past decade. The Bangkok Post article shared a staggering statistic on Chinese tourism numbers:

“The president of the Tourism Council of Thailand told Reuters on Wednesday that about 800,000 visitors from China were expected to visit the country over the Lunar New Year holiday later this month.”

Chinese tourists have been exploding over the past decade, however, there has been a slowdown in growth in recent years. In the United States alone, approximately 3 million Chinese tourists arrived in 2018. Overall, approximately 150 million Chinese tourists took trips abroad in 2018 with continued growth expected.

Health officials worldwide are grateful for the prompt sharing of information about the new virus. However, containing any outbreak is difficult as we live in increasingly globalized society. Undiagnosed infection, substandard sterilization of aircraft, and lack of universal screening at airports are obstacles that can exacerbate the spread of the disease.